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and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. BIS found more under-cover evidence of his speed: Heyward only grounded into five double plays in 145 GDP opportunities. Just how healthy is Heyward? $8? Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is. Jason Heyward CF B/T: L/L 6' 5" 240LBS Age: 33 Draft: 2007 Rd: 1, #14, Atlanta Braves Henry County (GA) HS Player Apps Pitch Highlighter Player Similarity Shifts Swing Take Profile illustrator Zone Swing Profile Player Comparison Transaction History Show Random Video Stats Statcast Standard Splits Game Logs MLB Minors Batting Fielding Visuals Heyward, as you know, is left-handed, and here is where he hit baseballs between 2014 2015: I dont know what, if anything, stands out right away. Latest News/Blog Posts about Jason Heyward. May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. Id imagine all those infield popups are at least partly due to his bum shoulder. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The games, as you well know, havent mattered yet. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not. This spring, Heyward has hit 18 flies and liners, and hes sent two of them toward left. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Heyward made just one out on an attempted advance in 19 tries. As to the first, this is not the article to convince someone about advanced defensive metrics, but his highlight-reel catches, mutiple Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards seem to indicate there is some consensus from all viewpoints on the excellence of Heyward as a fielder. From 2010-2015, his 25 WAR was one of the top 20 marks in the game and in his final two seasons before free agency, his 10. In 2022, Heyward will earn a base salary of $22,000,000, with a total salary of $24,500,000. When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. FanGraphs Mugs. Jason Heyward Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 33 Bats/Throws: L/L 6' 5" / 240 OF Quick Look 2022 Games Played: CF: 26 RF: 21 RotoWire News: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday that Heyward. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). Keep looking at him, and also keep looking at his numbers, as the season begins and wears on. That is a major boost for lefty pull hitters like Soto (who hit 38.1 percent of his balls in play to the right field side last season, per Fangraphs). A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. Its not even clear this would be a good thing. He hit 27 home runs in 2012, but recorded just 13 of them this year along with an isolated slugging percentage of .146, essentially league average. He made his MLB debut that night against the Washington Nationals as a replacement for Jason Heyward, going hitless in 3 at-bats. The ZiPS top prospect list (ranking on the basis of minor league stats and player comps - no scouting) is going to make you sad, because outfield prospect Alexander Canario shows up at number 33. . Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . On Friday, the Cubs won the bidding for Jason Heyward, convincing the outfielder to come to Chicago despite offers for more guaranteed money from the Nationals, the Cardinals, and reportedly. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly Kiner-Falefa was a defensive whiz with 10 Defensive Runs saved in 2022, helping result in the lowest runs allowed per game in the Bronx since 1981. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Players are always free to change their minds about anything. 2023 Updated In-Season Projections This is how it usually works with increases in pulled grounders: Its a consequence of taking a more power-centric approach. It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. The group also has five players at the top who were tremendous successes. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Oviedo began incorporating a sinker at the suggestion of coaches upon being acquired from the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline. Jeff Zimmerman found that speedy players, like Heyward, age better than the rest of the baseball population. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Its really impressive to see a guy go out there and throw a ton of strikes and throw strikes with his offspeed pitches. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Sort the leaderboards for UBR or Ultimate BaseRunning, and Heyward floats to the top. To isolate players similar to Heyward, I looked for players from 1960 to 2007 within five of Heywards 27.8 WAR and within 20% of his 3429 plate appearances. Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. De Paula hit .350/.448/.522 with 13 doubles, five home runs, and two triples in 53 games in the Dominican Summer League in his professional debut, and the power was intriguing enough that FanGraphs wasn't alone on an island. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors The numbers may seem outrageous, but MLB revenues have been rising at very high rates, and there is so rarely a player of Heywards caliber and age that the market will likely have a difficult time finding a consensus. Heywards 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. Its no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500. Hitters might not want to hear this, but Phillies ace Zack Wheeler just added another pitch to his arsenal. Crawford debuted young, but due to a team-friendly contract, he did not become a free agent until after his age-28 season, three years older than Heyward. Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. He clearly can the man stands 65. Given his decent wheels, it seems highly unlikely that Heyward will continue to keep company with players who run like they have grand pianos strapped to their backs. I was like, I really just want to see a strike, Heaney said. FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . by Handedness. 1 day ago. by Retrosheet. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Trejo, 27, is fine with pushing for all the starts he can at second if thats his opportunity to be in the lineup. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. It took the Dodgers six games into their Cactus League schedule, but they finally achieved the ultimate spring . Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Perhaps rightfully so. Andrelton A. Simmons 198994 18888426 . Look at Jason Heyward. Jason Heyward got more credit for his defense than Mike Trout, by our numbers. With such an advanced plate approach and gargantuan numbers in the minors (he slashed .323/.408/.555 while rising from High-A to Triple-A as a teenager in 2009), Heyward reached the show years before most hitters do. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10. Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. Hes still really young He will split time with utility player Chris Taylor, who started at shortstop against Texas on Wednesday. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Mike Trout represented, perhaps, a belief that we could quantify the other aspects of the game and assign them value. Cubs president Jed Hoyer announced Monday the club intends to release veteran outfielder Jason Heyward from the final year of his deal at the end of the 2022 season. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. With an acknowledgment to the variance in sample size, we can compare the pitch locations of his 2014 against his first four big league seasons: As you might have guessed, thats bad news for Heyward, who, like many left-handed hitters, does his best work when hes able to feast on balls down and in. Manager Dave Roberts indicated Taylor would spend 20 to 25 percent of the games there, in addition to his usual work in the outfield. This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts * as the source of default lineups. Jordan Walker has a 28.5 ft/s Sprint Speed, good for an 80% percentile red lollipop once he gets a Savant slider. His 2012 projections are strong by Retrosheet. Phillies (24th, 1.4 WAR) With Bryce Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss the first half of the season, the spotlight is again on Nick Castellanos, whose performance in the first year of his five-year, $100 million deal was downright dreadful. Age is the decisive factor here. Heyward has been an above average offensive player, incredible on defense, and heading into free agency a few months after turning 26 years old, provides few realistic players for comparison. These comparable players here are not quite as accomplished as those from the WAR group above, which is to be expected given defense is not taken into account. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Going solely by offense, this group has a total bust rate of one in three. Higgins over one inning. sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. Heyward remains a tempting upside guy on draft day, but its hard to bid on him too far beyond the price tag of a No. Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. . Because, even if he did it from the corner outfield, Heyward was able to emulate the Angelic newcomer in a way. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. For the first method, we assume the only information we know is age, WAR, and total number of plate appearances. But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.coms latest ADP rankings. I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. by Retrosheet. Up for debate is precisely how good Jason Heyward has been during his career, and more importantly for whichever teams signs him this winter, how good Heyward will be moving forward. Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). The Pirates suggested that Oviedo begin throwing a sinker because his four-seam fastball naturally sinks. The Dodgers lost their starting shortstop for the entirety of the 2023 season in the third game of spring training. The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). When signing long-term contracts, teams tend to pay them out equally over the length of the contract. Gift a Membership. Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. Heywards .113 ISO was no less than 71 points below his career mark entering this year, he slugged just .384 and notched only 58 RBIs, despite making about one-third of his plate appearances as the fifth hitter in the Braves order. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will play shortstop for now. He went second to home on a single 82% of the time, which was 16th-best among 131 players. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way. We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The Leaderboards. Putting everything together, we still have not placed a value on those wins. But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries. Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him. Currently, Yahoo! by Handedness, Making Too Much of Too Little Jason Heyward, Effectively Wild Episode 852: 2016 Season Preview Series: Chicago Cubs, Evaluating the 2016 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals, pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Whatever the name, it might become a problem for them. Contracts matter Miller is entering his first year of arbitration while Heyward is now a FA. . He started 13 games there in 2021 and six last season, but John Schneider is expecting more of a 50-50 split for Biggio between the infield and outfield this season, adding that hell play a ton of outfield. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Heyward will get paid. Its easy to lose sight of Heywards age, considering that he has been in the majors for two years, stands 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and could probably grow a beard by noon if he shaved right now. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . No matter which group you look at, he is likely to be a productive player at age 30. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. Over 55 combined seasons, the group averaged five wins per season. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. He went second to home on a single. Examining The Cubs' Fifth Starter Options from MLBTradeRumors.com at 2/22/2023 4:39:00 AM. I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks again, Walker Buehler starts throwing. I think thats in the ballpark. I dont want to start my first game of Spring Training going 3-0 on a guy or nibbling. Cavan Biggio will play half his games in the outfield. Solid production, that, despite some disappointing seasons mixed in. Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards. Heres a bomb to right. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. by Handedness. Massive crying face emoji. Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. In fact, only teammate Michael Bourn managed more defensive value all around from the outfield. He has been a well above-average hitter in the majors at an age when most players are in a short-season league, A-Ball or college. However, if we want some sort of hybrid, we can look at the declines of the offensive comps and the defensive comps and combine them. The shift movement had already produced some . FanGraphs currently estimates the cost of a win at around $8 million. If you took Jason Heyward in your draft this year you almost certainly spent a pretty penny on him. As in the case of the first table, we again see some of the greatest baseball players. Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. Crossword; Sudoku; Crossword; Sudoku _____ About Us Games. by Handedness. The coaches that were working with me were trying to get me to throw a sinker because sometimes my fastball sinks, Oviedo said. The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. The No. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Donate to FanGraphs. So what is his value in an auction re-draft league? Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. Heywards defense and lack of power has the potential to confound, but stripping away the defense, we still see an incredibly valuable player with the potential to maintain or even improve his production. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza. It could have something to do with the. If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted For a big man, he can run a little Lets focus on Heyward and power for a minute, then. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. But, when seen in the light of this years AL MVP debate, as well as the context of these four young outfielders, it is remarkable that Heyward has taken a similar path to Mike Trout, even with an athleticism that might be touch short of that demonstrated by the American League Rookie of the Year. by Retrosheet. While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. He homered off former Dodger Andrew Heaney in Wednesdays second inning. ESPN, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline . My favorite minor story line this season is that the Cubs are paying about $40 million to replace Heyward with Bellinger, and the Dodgers are paying about $0 to replace Bellinger with Heyward. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. The general concern around Heyward and defense is twofold. Bill James Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. Since the end of World War II, there are 42 players to have produced more than Heywards 61.9 defensive runs above average through age-25, and there are 61 players responsible for more offensive runs above average than Heywards 94.5 through his age-25 season. Effectively Wild Episode 87: Baseball and the BCS/Halladay vs. Lee/Does the Success Cycle Still Exist? Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). And its easy to identify the problem: Observers wish that Heyward would hit for more power. I think the Bogaerts and Carpenter examples are meant to show that, while ground ball pull rate might not seem to be related to power at all (as you say, ground balls are not that great usually), Jeff thinks of it as an indicator of change.. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com Ground balls are a function of the swings, and consider Xander Bogaerts. Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. Jason Heyward. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. He looked like a pitcher.. Sure, Bourn did not light the world on fire with his wRC+ of 117 and slash line of .274/.348/.391, but it was 17.0 percent better than league average. Good defensive outfielders might simply be a smaller subset of that group overall. While those deals might no look great now, age is a major factor. Im not all that mad about it. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. That search reveals the following players. Its not so stark there are reasonable arguments to be made for Cabreras dominance at the plate, even if they rely on team- and division-based outcomes in the end but there was some of that bubbling under the surface of the debate.