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The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. hide caption. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. First, what are bellwether counties? "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. These bellwether counties mirror close NC race for president Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. It is easy to gloss over this. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Their emotions and decision making process are real. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Sumter County, . Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. University of Denver, 2. Jeff. Watch Hampton City. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Ron Elving . Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? | FiveThirtyEight As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. They're just facts about the vote. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! Read about our approach to external linking. (subject to censorship). 4. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Not anymore. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. It also backed Gov. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. Website Updates Paused This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Dont simply gloss over this. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Will That Last?]. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. . Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). We believe this was a mistake. 9 Battleground State Counties That Trump and Biden Need to Win - The The divisions were everywhere. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Bellwether 2016 The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812.